Hawk Energy NewBase is pleased to present you its latest energy news
Renewables will supply half of global electricity by 2030: IEA
TradeArabia News Service
With solar leading their rapid deployment, renewables are on course to meet almost half of global
electricity demand by the end of this decade, new IEA report says.
Due to supportive policies and favourable economics, the world’s renewable power capacity is
expected to surge over the rest of this decade, with global additions on course to roughly equal the
current power capacity of China, the European Union, India and the US combined, according to a
new IEA report
The Renewables 2024 report, the IEA’s flagship annual publication on the sector, finds that the world is set to add more than 5 500 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable energy capacity between 2024 and 2030 – almost three times the increase seen between 2017 and 2023.
According to the report, China is set to account for almost 60% of all renewable capacity installed worldwide between now and 2030, based on current market trends and today's policy settings by governments.
That would make China home to almost half of the world’s total renewable power capacity by the end of this decade, up from a share of a third in 2010. While China is adding the biggest volumes of renewables, India is growing at the fastest rate among major economies.
In terms of technologies, solar PV alone is forecast to account for a massive 80% of the growth in global renewable capacity between now and 2030 – the result of the construction of new large solar power plants as well as an increase in rooftop solar installations by companies and households.
And despite ongoing challenges, the wind sector is also poised for a recovery, with the rate of expansion doubling between 2024 and 2030, compared with the period between 2017 and 2023. Already, wind and solar PV are the cheapest options to add new electricity generation in almost every country.
As a result of these trends, nearly 70 countries that collectively account for 80% of global renewable power capacity are poised to reach or surpass their current renewable ambitions for 2030.
The growth is not fully in line with the goal set by nearly 200 governments at the COP28 climate change conference in December 2023 to triple the world’s renewable capacity this decade – the report forecasts global capacity will reach 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030. But IEA analysis indicates that fully meeting the tripling target is entirely possible if governments take near-term opportunities for action.
This includes outlining bold plans in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement due next year, and bolstering international cooperation on bringing down high financing costs in emerging and developing economies, which are restraining renewables’ growth in high-potential regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia.
“Renewables are moving faster than national governments can set targets for. This is mainly driven not just by efforts to lower emissions or boost energy security – it’s increasingly because renewables today offer the cheapest option to add new power plants in almost all countries around the world,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “This report shows that the growth of renewables, especially solar, will transform electricity systems across the globe this decade. Between now and 2030, the world is on course to add more than 5 500 gigawatts of renewable power capacity – roughly equal the current power capacity of China, the European Union, India and the US combined. By 2030, we expect renewables to be meeting half of global electricity demand.” By the end of this decade, the share of wind and solar PV alone in global electricity generation is set to double to 30%, according to the forecast. However, the report emphasises the need for governments to ramp up their efforts to securely integrate these variable renewable sources into power systems.
Recently, rates of curtailment – where renewable electricity generation isn’t put to use – have been increasing substantially, already reaching around 10% in several countries today. To address this, countries should focus on measures such as increasing power system flexibility.
Making a concerted push to address policy uncertainties and streamline permitting processes – and to build and modernise 25 million kilometres of electricity grids and reach 1 500 GW of storage capacity by 2030, as highlighted in previous IEA analysis – would enable even larger shares of generation from renewables.
Overall, led by the massive growth of renewable electricity, the share of renewables in final energy consumption is forecast to increase to nearly 20% by 2030, up from 13% in 2023. Meanwhile, renewable fuels – the subject of a special chapter in the report – are lagging behind, underscoring the need for dedicated policy support to decarbonise sectors that are hard to electrify.
Meeting international climate goals would require not only accelerating the rollout of renewable power, but also significantly speeding up the adoption of sustainable biofuels, biogases, hydrogen and e-fuels, the report notes. Since these fuels remain more expensive than their fossil counterparts, their share in global energy is set to remain below 6% in 2030.
The report also looks at the state of manufacturing for renewable technologies. Global solar manufacturing capacity is expected to surpass 1 100 GW by the end of 2024, more than double projected demand. While this supply glut, concentrated in China, has supported a decline in module prices – which have more than halved since early 2023 as a result – it also means that many manufacturers are seeing large financial losses.
Given the growing international focus on industrial competitiveness, solar PV manufacturing capacity is forecast to triple in both India and the US by 2030, helping global diversification. However, producing solar panels in the US costs three times as much as in China, and in India, it is twice as expensive.
According to the report, policymakers should consider how to strike a balance between the additional costs and benefits of local manufacturing, weighing key priorities such as job creation and energy security. -
Yemen: Fewer tankers transit the Red Sea in 2024
U.S. Energy Information Administration
The amount of crude oil and oil products flowing through the Bab el-Mandeb, the southern
chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea, decreased by more than 50% in the first eight months of 2024. Chokepoints are narrow channels along widely used global sea routes, and they are critical to global energy security. The inability of oil to transit a major chokepoint, even temporarily, can lead to substantial supply delays and higher shipping costs, resulting in higher world energy prices.
After Yemen-based Houthi militia attacks on commercial ships transiting the Red Sea started in November 2023, some vessels began opting to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint—a narrow strait that borders the Yemeni coast and is the southern entrance to the Red Sea. Instead, they’re choosing to take longer, more costly routes around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa.
Oil trade flows in the Red Sea have decreased significantly over the past year. Oil trade flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait averaged 4.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 through August compared with 8.7 million b/d in full-year 2023, according to Vortexa data.
The Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are strategic routes for Persian Gulf oil and natural gas shipments to Europe and North America. The Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline are located in Egypt and connect the Red Sea with the Mediterranean Sea.
The volume of crude oil and oil products flowing around the Cape of Good Hope increased to 9.2 million b/d in the first eight months of 2024 from an average of 6.0 million b/d in 2023, according to Vortexa data.
The Strait of Hormuz, located between Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint because large volumes of oil flow through the strait.
In 2023, oil flows through Hormuz averaged 20.9 million barrels per day (b/d), or the equivalent of about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. In addition, around one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade also transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2023.
Iran ranked as the world's third-largest oil and second-largest natural gas reserve holder in 2023, although international sanctions have constrained its production. Total petroleum and other liquids production in Iran rose from a recent annual low of less than 3.0 million b/d in 2020 to an average of 4.0 million b/d in 2023. Of this 4.0 million b/d, almost 2.9 million b/d was crude oil, and the remainder was condensate and hydrocarbon gas liquids.
Saudi Arabia was the world’s third-largest crude oil and condensate producer, the world’s top crude oil exporter, and OPEC’s top crude oil producer in 2023, when its output averaged 9.5 million b/d.
Israel is the second-largest natural gas producer in the Eastern Mediterranean region, after Egypt. Natural gas production in Israel began growing in 2013 when the Tamar field began production. Since then, several more offshore natural gas fields have begun production and provided enough fuel to meet Israel's rising domestic natural gas needs as well as exports to Egypt and Jordan. In 2022, natural gas production in Israel totaled 808 billion cubic feet (Bcf).
Global oil prices and the U.S. market
Imports of crude oil from Persian Gulf countries to the United States have decreased over the past decade due to rising domestic production. In 2023, imports of crude oil from Persian Gulf countries to the United States averaged 609,000 b/d, down from 2.0 million b/d in 2013. Imports from the region accounted for 9.3% of total U.S. crude oil imports in 2023.
Crude oil is traded globally, and regional impacts to international energy trade can have global price implications. Escalated tensions in the Middle East have increased the geopolitical risk for global oil price benchmarks in recent weeks. Following Iran’s attacks on Israel on October 1, 2024, the price of Brent crude oil—the international benchmark—increased, reaching $81 per barrel on October 7. As of October 10, the Brent crude oil price was $79/b.
China-developed deepwater gas field
sees record high oil, gas output
WAM + Hawk Energy NewBase
China's first independently developed and independently built ultra-deepwater gas field, Shenhai Yihao, also known as Deep Sea No.1, has recorded an accumulated natural gas output of over 9 billion cubic meters to date, with an oil output exceeding 900,000 cubic meters.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Shenhai Yihao is the deepest gas field of its kind in China and began operations on 25th June 2021.
The China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has said that once its phase II project, which aims to upgrade the gas field, is fully operational, it expects that Deep Sea No.1 will increase its peak annual output from 3 billion cubic meters to 4.5 billion cubic meters. And by that time, the gas field will be an important gas source for the country's energy security.
The phase II project has proven natural gas reserves of over 50 billion cubic meters and includes such facilities as 12 deepwater gas wells, a comprehensive processing platform weighing over 14,000 tonnes, and five submarine pipelines with a total length of approximately 250 kilometres.
Deep Sea No.1 is located 150 kilometres from the city of Sanya in South China's island province of Hainan. It can operate at a maximum marine depth of over 1,500 meters.
China’s Still Backing Overseas Coal Plants After Ban, Says CREA
Bloomberg News
Chinese firms and banks continue to support the expansion of coal power overseas, three years after President Xi Jinping promised to end the practice, according to new research.
Some 8.6 gigawatts of previously unannounced Chinese-backed coal-fired power plants have entered construction or the pre-permitting phase in the past year in places like Southeast Asia and Africa, the Centre for Research on Energ y and Clean Air said in a report on Tuesday.
Xi’s announcement in September 2021 that China would stop building new coal-fired power projects abroad was thought to be a major step toward ending international funding for the dirtiest fossil fuel. While it has been successful in canceling about 43 gigawatts of new projects, another 26 gigawatts of plants underway at the time have already come online.
Nearly 50 gigawatts more are still in the pipeline, with the potential to spew over 5 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by 2050. That’s more than the emissions produced by the whole of the European Union in a single year.
While some of the projects that have come to light in the past year are utility power plants that clearly violate Xi’s pledge, many are captive generators built specifically for industrial processes, such as at metals smelting, said Daniel Nesan, the report’s author.
“New coal projects continue to emerge, revealing gaps in the enforcement of China’s pledge, particularly in captive power projects, which exploit a gray area in the pledge,” Nesan said.
The sharper-than-expected slowdown in China’s trade in September suggests both external and domestic demand weakened, said Bloomberg Economics. That may have been a factor motivating decisions to draw up a stimulus package near the end of the month.
Caixin reported that Beijing is considering issuing 6 trillion yuan ($846 billion) in ultra-long special treasury bonds over three years to support growth. If confirmed, it would help put a floor under the economy but may not be enough for China’s “whatever-it-takes” moment.
Chinese steel exports in September hit their highest level since 2016, in a surge that risks stoking trade tensions as the top producer offloads its surplus to the rest of the world.
At COP28, 130 countries signalled their intent to phase out unabated coal power and stop investing in new unabated coal-fired power plants within this decade, by signing the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge.
In addition, the final global stocktake agreement at COP28 reiterated the pledge from COP26 to phase down unabated coal power, but still does not define what “unabated” means. Additionally, wording from earlier drafts on ending permitting of new coal power was omitted in the final text.
“Coal power is at the edge of a precipice, facing political and civil opposition and increasingly uncompetitive economics,” GEM’s report states.
In a statement, Flora Champenois, coal programme director for GEM said:
“Coal’s fortunes this year are an anomaly, as all signs point to reversing course from this accelerated expansion. But countries that have coal plants to retire need to do so more quickly, and countries that have plans for new coal plants must make sure these are never built. Otherwise we can forget about meeting our goals in the Paris Agreement and reaping the benefits that a swift transition to clean energy will bring.”
Oil falls 3% as concerns ease on potential Iran supply disruption
By Reuters + Hawk Energy NewBase
Oil prices slid 3% in early Asian trade on Tuesday after a media report said Israel is willing not to strike Iranian oil targets, which eased fears of a supply disruption, and after OPEC lowered its outlook for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.
Both benchmarks plunged 3% in early trade on Tuesday, following a 2% drop on Monday. Brent crude futures were down $2.29 at $75.17 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell $2.23 to $71.60 per barrel as of 1227 GMT.
Prices have fallen about $4 this week, nearly wiping out cumulative gains made in the seven sessions up to last Friday when investors were concerned about supply risks as Israel planned to retaliate against a missile attack from Iran.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told the U.S. that Israel is willing to strike Iranian military targets and not nuclear or oil ones, the Washington Post reported on Monday.
OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and also lowered its projection for next year.
"This is the third straight monthly downgrade, suggesting its previously optimistic forecasts have further to retreat," analysts at ANZ Research said in a note on Tuesday.
"It (Iraq) is still not making any progress in the extra cuts it promised to compensate for over production," ANZ said.
Also weighing on prices was a decline in crude shipments to the world's largest oil importer China for the first nine months of the year, with data showing imports fell nearly 3% from last year.
China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade by OPEC, as it trimmed its growth forecast for the country to 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 650,000 bpd.
Deflationary pressures in China worsened in September, according to official data released on Saturday. A press conference the same day left investors guessing about the overall size of a stimulus package to revive the fortunes of the world's second-largest economy.
Earlier il settles down on Florida fuel demand worries,
Mideast risk drives weekly gains
Oil prices settled lower on Friday but rose for the second straight week as investors weighed factors such as possible supply disruptions in the Middle East and Hurricane Milton's impact on fuel demand in Florida.
"Markets can feel the tension, as Israel contemplates the size and form for their response to Iran's massive missile attack. If Israel destroys Iran's oil & gas infrastructure, prices will rise," said chief economist at Matador Economics, Tim Snyder, in a note on Friday.
Crude benchmarks spiked so far this month after Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel on Oct. 1, raising the prospect of retaliation against Iranian oil facilities. Israel has yet to respond.
"$75 per barrel for WTI is sort of the fair value area for elevated tensions," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York.
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has said that any strike against Iran would be "lethal, precise and surprising."
"We need to wait and see how Israel responds, but I think until that point the oil market will keep a risk premium," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
Iran is backing several groups fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.
Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran's oil sites out of concern their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran's allies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters.
Weighing on prices, Hurricane Milton plowed into the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday after cutting a destructive path across Florida, killing at least 10 people and leaving millions without power.
Gasoline shortages gripped the state earlier in the week as drivers stocked up ahead of the hurricane, with nearly a quarter of 7,912 gasoline stations in Florida out of fuel by Wednesday morning, but the destruction could go on to dampen fuel consumption in the hurricane's aftermath.
Florida is the third-largest gasoline consumer in the U.S., but there are no refineries in the state, making it dependent on waterborne imports.
And reservations over high crude inventories and a possibly more gradual monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve have also helped put the recent rally in oil prices on hold, said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.
On the supply side, Libya's national oil corporation (NOC) said on Friday it had restored oil production to levels before the country's central bank crisis as it reached 1.25 million barrels.
Meanwhile, easing third quarter earnings for big oil may have also weighed on investor sentiment, with weak refining margins due to a slowdown in global demand for fuel and lower oil trading, putting a dent in BP's (BP.L), opens new tab third-quarter profit by up to $600 million, the British oil major said on Friday.
